Engines
Engine 01 · Mispricing

When the price and the probability disagree.

Every price on a prediction market is a probability in disguise. The Mispricing Engine estimates what that probability should be, compares it to what the market is actually charging, and flags the gap.

Polymarket Kalshi Sports · Politics · Crypto Real-time
The idea

A market price is an implied probability.

A contract trading at 0.62 is the crowd saying "we think this is about a 62% chance." Most of the time the crowd is roughly right — prediction markets are efficient. But not always. Liquidity gaps, slow reactions to new information, herd behaviour and thin order books all leave prices lagging behind reality for a while.

Zynkr's job is to find those moments: markets where the traded price has drifted away from a defensible estimate of the true probability, and where that gap is still open enough to matter.

How it works

Four questions, one signal.

01

What is the market charging?

Zynkr reads live prices and implied probabilities across active markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, continuously.

02

What should it be charging?

A fair-probability estimate is built from historical base rates, market structure and independent external signals — never a single guess.

03

Is the gap real and executable?

A difference only counts if there's enough liquidity and time left to act on it. Thin, stale or already-corrected markets are filtered out.

04

How confident are we?

Each candidate is scored and ranked, so the strongest, best-supported gaps rise to the top instead of a flat list of noise.

// We publish the framework, not the parameters. The specific models, thresholds and per-market tuning behind the ranking stay private — that's the part members pay for.

What a member sees

A signal, not a hunch.

When the engine flags a market, you get the whole picture at a glance — enough to make your own decision, on the venue where the market actually lives.

MarketExample: team X to win · league match
Current price0.62
Fair estimate0.41
Gap+21¢
ConfidenceHigh · multi-source
Action windowTime-boxed

// Illustrative layout. Real markets, prices and figures change constantly and are delivered live to members.

Track record

88.7% win rate on flagged mispricings.

Measured across 1,586 onchain markets in the 2025/26 European football season. Per-league performance and the full sample are published on the home page. Win rate is a historical reference, not a promise — every live opportunity still depends on current price, liquidity and timing.

See the proof →

Stop guessing the probability. Measure the gap.

Get mispricing signals the moment they open — with context, confidence and an action window — straight to Telegram.