How prediction markets work
— and how to act on a signal

01What is a prediction market?

It's a marketplace for event contracts — a binary instrument that pays out on a real-world outcome. On Polymarketyou trade shares of YES or NO on a question like "Will the high temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 12?"

Each share settles at $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn't. Buy a YES share for $0.40; if the event happens it becomes worth $1 — that's your profit. If it doesn't, it's worth $0.

02The price is the probability

Because shares pay $1 or $0, the price reads directly as the crowd's odds. A contract at $0.63 implies a 63% chance of the outcome. $0.90 means the market thinks it's near-certain; $0.10 means unlikely.

Zynkr's edge is finding prices that disagree with reality — a thermometer, a base rate, a scoreboard — before the market repriced.

03What "buying NO" means

You don't have to bet that something happens. Buying a NO share is betting it won't — and it pays $1 if the event fails to occur. Many Zynkr weather signals are exactly this: the day's high almost certainly won't reach a given bin, so the NO at ~0.85 resolves to 1.00.

A NO bought at 0.85 that resolves at 1.00 returns about +18% — no leverage, no liquidation.

04Resolution & getting paid

When the event is decided, the market resolves: winning shares settle at $1, losing ones at $0, straight to your wallet. You don't have to wait — you can sell any time at the current price.

Our rule of thumb: if your NO reaches ~0.98, selling frees the capital to rotate into the next signal instead of waiting hours for the last two cents. A Zynkr sell alert gives you the option to sell or hold to resolution — your call.

05The words you'll see

06How to read a Zynkr signal

Every signal carries the same six fields — no guesswork:

Market & side tell you what. Entry caps the price. Edge is why. Window is when. Stop is your exit. That's the whole trade.

07Placing your first trade

1. Fund a Polymarket wallet — Polymarket runs on USDC on Polygon; the app walks you through funding.
2. Open the exact market from the signal link. Check it's the same date and bin.
3. Choose the side (YES/NO) and buy at or below the entry price — never chase above it.
4. Size it to your bankroll (see below), not your excitement.
5. Manage the exit: hold to resolution, or sell near ~0.98 / on a Zynkr sell alert.

08Risk & bankroll

One signal never gets your whole stack. We size with fractional Kelly — a small, repeatable fraction of your bankroll per signal — and cut losers at a managed stop (−20%) instead of riding them to $0. That's why our published ROI is measured with losses, in a public ledger.

Prediction markets carry real risk and finite depth. Nothing here is financial advice or a promise of returns. The point is to put the odds on your side and cap the damage when you're wrong.